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Irwin Library of Investment and Finance An Examination of Today's Major Exchange-Rate Forecasting Models and Tools--and When to Use Each for Maximum Efficacy and Accuracy Increased global trade and cross-border interaction have redefined the worldwide business arena. At the same time, the ability to accurately forecast and determine exchange rates has come to dictate the terms of success for companies conducting business in that arena. "Exchange-Rate Determination explores today's most popular models and strategies for forecasting exchange rates, and reveals the strengths, weaknesses, and appropriate applications of each. Covering short-, medium-, and long-run time frames, this essential combination of reference and workbook discusses: Potential risks and rewards of short-term forecasting approaches Methods for using technical analysis for currency forecasting The importance of financial flows in the determination of exchange rates Models and techniques for forecasting foreign exchange rates are as numerous as they are contradictory. Yet getting the right exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Let "Exchange-Rate Determination introduce you to today's most effective forecasting tools and, just as important, show you when to use those tools for maximum accuracy, impact, and profit. "Having endeavored to forecast exchange rates for more than half a century, I have understandably developed significant humility about my ability in this area..."--Alan Greenspan "Perhaps all that one can say after reviewing all the different approaches to exchange-rate determination is that no single approach has a monopoly on being right all of thetime."--From the introduction The fact that accurate exchange-rate forecasting is frustrating and difficult does not make it any less vital.

Most of the literature on exchange rate regimes has focused on the developed countries. Since the recent crises in emerging markets, however, attention has shifted to the choice of exchange rate regimes for developing countries, especially those that are more integrated into the world capital markets. In Too Sensational, W. Max Corden presents a systematic and accessible overview of the choice of exchange rate regimes. Reviewing many types of regimes, he shows how the choice of an exchange rate regime is related to both fiscal policy and trade policy.Building on the theory of optimum currency areas, Corden develops an analytic framework of three approaches (nominal anchor, real targets, and exchange rate stability) and three polar exchange rate regimes (absolutely fixed, pure floating, and fixed but adjustable). He considers all other regimes to be mixtures of two or three of the polar regimes.Beginning with theory and later turning to case studies of countries in Asia, Europe, and Latin America, Corden focuses on how economies react to negative and positive shocks under various exchange rate regimes. He examines in particular the Asian and Latin American currency crises of the 1990s. He concludes that although "too sensational" crises have discredited fixed but adjustable regimes, the extremes of absolutely fixed regimes or pure floating regimes need not be chosen.

Floating exchange rate - A floating exchange rate or a flexible exchange rate is a type of exchange rate regime wherein a currency's value is allowed to fluctuate according to the foreign exchange market. A currency that uses a floating exchange rate is known as a floating currency.

Fixed exchange rate - A fixed exchange rate, sometimes (less commonly) called a pegged exchange rate, is a type of exchange rate regime wherein a currency's value is matched to the value of another single currency or to a basket of other currencies, or to another measure of value, such as gold. As the reference value rises and falls, so does the currency pegged to it.

Linked exchange rate - A linked exchange rate system is a type of exchange rate regime to link the exchange rate of a currency to another.

European Exchange Rate Mechanism - The European Exchange Rate Mechanism (or ERM) was a system introduced by the European Community in March 1979, as part of the European Monetary System (EMS), to reduce exchange rate variability and achieve monetary stability in Europe, in preparation for Economic and Monetary Union and the introduction of a single currency, the euro, which took place on 1 January 1999.

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